Family of 4 (2 adults, 2 kids ages 9 & 6) ยท Kentucky ยท 12-month projection
Prepared by Plan Lens ยท Risk tolerance: 4/10 (balanced, leaning cautious) ยท Marginal tax rate: 22%
Note: All three plans cover preventive care 100%, so the 4 annual physicals are $0 across the board. Orthodontia is typically a dental benefit โ none of these three medical plans address it; budget separately (see Action Items).
Totals are after-tax, all-in annual cost (premium + projected out-of-pocket โ tax effects), rounded to the nearest $50. Tax effects: HSA contribution shield on Plan A; employer's $1,500 HSA seed credited as real value. Premiums here are not tax-deductible unless you're self-employed and buying this off-employer โ see methodology.
| Plan | Premium/yr | Family Deductible | OOP Max | ER cost-share | Best case | Mid case | Worst case | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A โ Anthem HDHP/HSA | $5,040 | $8,000 | $14,000 | Ded + 20% | $6,150 | $9,250 | $17,200 | Cheapest premium, worst tail & quiet-year drug exposure |
| ๐ B โ Anthem PPO 1500 | $9,120 | $3,000 | $11,000 | $400 + 20% | $9,500 | $10,750 | $14,950 | ๐ Best balance for your utilization & risk level |
| โ C โ Humana HMO Select | $11,760 | $1,500 | $8,000 | $300 copay | $11,950 | $12,500 | $14,500 | โ Tightest worst-case cap, but priciest in quiet/typical years |
Best case โ refills + checkups only ยท Mid case โ typical year (your description) ยท Worst case โ 3 ER, 2 MRI, hospitalization possibility, heavy sick-visit load.
Annual physicals ($0 preventive), steady asthma + SSRI refills, 2 pulmonology follow-ups, a derm visit, minimal sick care. No ER, no imaging.
| Plan | Premium | Projected OOP | Tax/HSA adj. | After-tax total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A โ HDHP | $5,040 | ~$1,650 | โ$540 (HSA shield + seed) | $6,150 |
| ๐ B โ PPO 1500 | $9,120 | ~$380 | $0 | $9,500 |
| C โ HMO | $11,760 | ~$190 | $0 | $11,950 |
Plan A wins a quiet year on premium alone โ but note its ~$1,650 OOP is mostly your two daily generic meds being charged near-cash until the deductible builds.
Your described year: ~7 sick/urgent-care visits across the family, 1 ER trip (asthma flare or fall), 2 pulmonology + 1 derm + ~6 therapy sessions, all refills. No imaging beyond minor, no hospitalization.
| Plan | Premium | Projected OOP | Tax/HSA adj. | After-tax total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A โ HDHP | $5,040 | ~$4,750 | โ$540 | $9,250 |
| ๐ B โ PPO 1500 | $9,120 | ~$1,630 | $0 | $10,750 |
| C โ HMO | $11,760 | ~$740 | $0 | $12,500 |
This is the scenario that should drive your decision โ it's the year you actually expect. Plan B lands ~$1,500 cheaper than A only in pure premium, but A's deductible exposure (especially that ER + meds) closes most of the gap, leaving B just ~$1,500 more for far steadier monthly bills.
3 ER visits (simple/moderate/complex), 2 MRIs, a short hospitalization, heavy sick-visit load, all chronic care continuing.
| Plan | Premium | Projected OOP (capped) | Tax/HSA adj. | After-tax total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A โ HDHP | $5,040 | $14,000 (OOP max) | โ$1,840 (full HSA shield + seed) | $17,200 |
| ๐ B โ PPO 1500 | $9,120 | ~$5,830 (toward $11k cap) | $0 | $14,950 |
| โ C โ HMO | $11,760 | ~$2,740 (toward $8k cap) | $0 | $14,500 |
In a genuinely bad year the rankings flip: Plan A's $14k OOP max + premium makes it the most expensive at ~$17,200, while C's tight $8k cap nearly catches B despite the high premium. This is the tail risk your 4/10 risk tolerance cares about.
Why Plan B fits your 4/10 (balanced, slightly cautious) risk tolerance. You have predictable, recurring care โ two daily generic meds, chronic asthma management, regular therapy, and a near-certain ER visit each year. Plan B turns all of that into flat, knowable copays ($15 generic, $30 PCP, $60 specialist, $75 urgent care) instead of deductible-gated coinsurance. In your typical year it runs ~$10,750 โ only about $1,500 more than the HDHP โ but with dramatically steadier monthly bills and no nasty surprise when a refill or ER trip hits before a deductible is met. Its $11,000 OOP max also caps a bad year ~$3,000 below Plan A's.
If your tolerance were higher (7+): Plan A (HDHP) would deserve the crown โ it's $1,500โ$3,500 cheaper in quiet-to-typical years and the $1,500 employer HSA seed plus 22% tax shield on $8,550 of contributions is real money. The bet you'd be making is that you don't have a bad year โ and given an expected annual ER trip and two daily meds, that's a meaningful bet to lose.
If you were more risk-averse than 4 (1โ2), or expect a heavy year: โ Plan C (HMO) earns the alternative marker. Its $8,000 OOP max is the tightest worst-case ceiling here and its copays are the lowest, but you pay $2,640/yr more in premium than B for that protection, accept HMO referral friction, and lose out-of-network coverage. Only worth it if a high-cost year feels likely or specialist access via referral doesn't bother you.
All projections rounded to nearest $50. Preventive/annual physicals = $0 (all plans). Generic Rx assumed: 2 daily generics (sertraline, inhaled corticosteroid) โ 24 fills/yr combined + albuterol PRN.
Plan B/C: ~24 generic fills ร $10โ$15 = ~$240โ$360/yr โ flat, predictable.
Plan A: Same fills billed at deductible/cash rate. A daily ICS inhaler can run $50โ$120 cash; sertraline ~$10โ$20. Estimated ~$900โ$1,300/yr until the family deductible builds โ this is the single biggest reason A loses ground in quiet years for your household specifically.
Typical year OOP โ 7 sick/UC visits ($30โ$75 each โ $350) + 1 ER ($400 copay + ~20% of a small post-deductible balance โ $500โ$650) + 3 specialist ($60 ea = $180) + 6 therapy (~$60 ea = $360) + Rx (~$300) โ ~$1,630. Comfortably under the $11,000 OOP max.
Employer seeds $1,500 โ credited as direct value. If you contribute toward the 2026 family limit ($8,550), 22% marginal shield โ up to $1,880 in tax savings, but only on dollars you actually contribute. We credited a conservative โ$540 (quiet/mid) reflecting partial contribution, and โ$1,840 (worst case, full shield assumed because you'd be funding it to spend it). Premiums shown are not assumed tax-deductible (employer-sponsored, pre-tax already, or non-self-employed); if you're self-employed buying off-marketplace, the SE health-insurance deduction would lower all three plans' net premium by 22% โ ask us to recompute.